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Jul 16

The Ideation-Execution Gap: Execution Outcomes of LLM-Generated versus Human Research Ideas

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown promise in accelerating the scientific research pipeline. A key capability for this process is the ability to generate novel research ideas, and prior studies have found settings in which LLM-generated research ideas were judged as more novel than human-expert ideas. However, a good idea should not simply appear to be novel, it should also result in better research after being executed. To test whether AI-generated ideas lead to better research outcomes, we conduct an execution study by recruiting 43 expert researchers to execute randomly-assigned ideas, either written by experts or generated by an LLM. Each expert spent over 100 hours implementing the idea and wrote a 4-page short paper to document the experiments. All the executed projects are then reviewed blindly by expert NLP researchers. Comparing the review scores of the same ideas before and after execution, the scores of the LLM-generated ideas decrease significantly more than expert-written ideas on all evaluation metrics (novelty, excitement, effectiveness, and overall; p < 0.05), closing the gap between LLM and human ideas observed at the ideation stage. When comparing the aggregated review scores from the execution study, we even observe that for many metrics there is a flip in rankings where human ideas score higher than LLM ideas. This ideation-execution gap highlights the limitations of current LLMs in generating truly effective research ideas and the challenge of evaluating research ideas in the absence of execution outcomes.

  • 3 authors
·
Jun 25, 2025

SWE-World: Building Software Engineering Agents in Docker-Free Environments

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have enabled software engineering agents to tackle complex code modification tasks. Most existing approaches rely on execution feedback from containerized environments, which require dependency-complete setup and physical execution of programs and tests. While effective, this paradigm is resource-intensive and difficult to maintain, substantially complicating agent training and limiting scalability. We propose SWE-World, a Docker-free framework that replaces physical execution environments with a learned surrogate for training and evaluating software engineering agents. SWE-World leverages LLM-based models trained on real agent-environment interaction data to predict intermediate execution outcomes and final test feedback, enabling agents to learn without interacting with physical containerized environments. This design preserves the standard agent-environment interaction loop while eliminating the need for costly environment construction and maintenance during agent optimization and evaluation. Furthermore, because SWE-World can simulate the final evaluation outcomes of candidate trajectories without real submission, it enables selecting the best solution among multiple test-time attempts, thereby facilitating effective test-time scaling (TTS) in software engineering tasks. Experiments on SWE-bench Verified demonstrate that SWE-World raises Qwen2.5-Coder-32B from 6.2\% to 52.0\% via Docker-free SFT, 55.0\% with Docker-free RL, and 68.2\% with further TTS. The code is available at https://github.com/RUCAIBox/SWE-World

RUC-AIBOX RUC-AIBOX
·
Feb 3 3

From Skills to Talent: Organising Heterogeneous Agents as a Real-World Company

Individual agent capabilities have advanced rapidly through modular skills and tool integrations, yet multi-agent systems remain constrained by fixed team structures, tightly coupled coordination logic, and session-bound learning. We argue that this reflects a deeper absence: a principled organisational layer that governs how a workforce of agents is assembled, governed, and improved over time, decoupled from what individual agents know. To fill this gap, we introduce OneManCompany (OMC), a framework that elevates multi-agent systems to the organisational level. OMC encapsulates skills, tools, and runtime configurations into portable agent identities called Talents, orchestrated through typed organisational interfaces that abstract over heterogeneous backends. A community-driven Talent Market enables on-demand recruitment, allowing the organisation to close capability gaps and reconfigure itself dynamically during execution. Organisational decision-making is operationalised through an Explore-Execute-Review (E^2R) tree search, which unifies planning, execution, and evaluation in a single hierarchical loop: tasks are decomposed top-down into accountable units and execution outcomes are aggregated bottom-up to drive systematic review and refinement. This loop provides formal guarantees on termination and deadlock freedom while mirroring the feedback mechanisms of human enterprises. Together, these contributions transform multi-agent systems from static, pre-configured pipelines into self-organising and self-improving AI organisations capable of adapting to open-ended tasks across diverse domains. Empirical evaluation on PRDBench shows that OMC achieves an 84.67% success rate, surpassing the state of the art by 15.48 percentage points, with cross-___domain case studies further demonstrating its generality.

  • 8 authors
·
Apr 23 5

VeRPO: Verifiable Dense Reward Policy Optimization for Code Generation

Effective reward design is a central challenge in Reinforcement Learning (RL) for code generation. Mainstream pass/fail outcome rewards enforce functional correctness via executing unit tests, but the resulting sparsity limits potential performance gains. While recent work has explored external Reward Models (RM) to generate richer, continuous rewards, the learned RMs suffer from reward misalignment and prohibitive computational cost. In this paper, we introduce VeRPO (Verifiable Dense Reward Policy Optimization), a novel RL framework for code generation that synthesizes robust and dense rewards fully grounded in verifiable execution feedback. The core idea of VeRPO is constructing dense rewards from weighted partial success: by dynamically estimating the difficulty weight of each unit test based on the execution statistics during training, a dense reward is derived from the sum of weights of the passed unit tests. To solidify the consistency between partial success and end-to-end functional correctness, VeRPO further integrates the dense signal with global execution outcomes, establishing a robust and dense reward paradigm relying solely on verifiable execution feedback. Extensive experiments across diverse benchmarks and settings demonstrate that VeRPO consistently outperforms outcome-driven and RM-based baselines, achieving up to +8.83\% gain in pass@1 with negligible time cost (< 0.02\%) and zero GPU memory overhead.

  • 9 authors
·
Jan 6

Chain-of-Query: Unleashing the Power of LLMs in SQL-Aided Table Understanding via Multi-Agent Collaboration

Table understanding requires structured, multi-step reasoning. Large Language Models (LLMs) struggle with it due to the structural complexity of tabular data. Recently, multi-agent frameworks for SQL generation have shown promise in tackling the challenges of understanding tabular data, but existing approaches often suffer from limitations such as the inability to comprehend table structure for reliable SQL generation, error propagation that results in invalid queries, and over-reliance on execution correctness. To address these issues, we propose Chain-of-Query (CoQ), a novel multi-agent framework for SQL-aided table understanding. CoQ adopts natural-language-style representations of table schemas to abstract away structural noise and enhance understanding. It employs a clause-by-clause SQL generation strategy to improve query quality and introduces a hybrid reasoning division that separates SQL-based mechanical reasoning from LLM-based logical inference, thereby reducing reliance on execution outcomes. Extensive experiments across four models and five widely used benchmarks demonstrate that CoQ achieves substantial accuracy improvements and significantly lowers invalid SQL rates compared to prior generic LLM-based, SQL-aided, and hybrid baselines, confirming its superior effectiveness in table understanding. The code is available at https://github.com/SongyuanSui/ChainofQuery.

  • 7 authors
·
Aug 14, 2025

BigCodeArena: Unveiling More Reliable Human Preferences in Code Generation via Execution

Crowdsourced model evaluation platforms, such as Chatbot Arena, enable real-time evaluation from human perspectives to assess the quality of model responses. In the coding ___domain, manually examining the quality of LLM-generated content is extremely challenging, as it requires understanding long chunks of raw code and deliberately simulating code execution. To this end, we introduce BigCodeArena, an open human evaluation platform for code generation backed by a comprehensive and on-the-fly execution environment. Built on top of Chatbot Arena, BigCodeArena enables the execution of LLM-generated code and allows humans to interact with the execution process and outcomes. We collected over 14,000 raw code-centric conversation sessions across 10 widely used LLMs, spanning 10 languages and 8 types of execution environments. Among these conversations, we identified more than 4,700 multi-turn samples with pairwise human preferences. Further analysis uncovers underexplored preferences of LLMs in fine-grained domains characterized by tasks, languages, and frameworks. To systematically examine code understanding and generation capabilities of frontier LLMs, we curated two benchmarks based on the collected data, namely BigCodeReward and AutoCodeArena. For BigCodeReward, we post-processed the 4,700 conversations and evaluated the consistency between reward models and human preferences. The evaluation shows that most LLMs have superior performance in judging coding preferences when the execution results are available. Inspired by these findings, we propose AutoCodeArena, an automatic Elo rating benchmark designed to assess the coding quality of LLMs without human involvement. We find that proprietary LLMs like GPT-5, Claude-Sonnet-4, and Claude-Opus-4 still lead in code generation performance among recent emerging models.

bigcode BigCode
·
Oct 9, 2025 3

One to rule them all: natural language to bind communication, perception and action

In recent years, research in the area of human-robot interaction has focused on developing robots capable of understanding complex human instructions and performing tasks in dynamic and diverse environments. These systems have a wide range of applications, from personal assistance to industrial robotics, emphasizing the importance of robots interacting flexibly, naturally and safely with humans. This paper presents an advanced architecture for robotic action planning that integrates communication, perception, and planning with Large Language Models (LLMs). Our system is designed to translate commands expressed in natural language into executable robot actions, incorporating environmental information and dynamically updating plans based on real-time feedback. The Planner Module is the core of the system where LLMs embedded in a modified ReAct framework are employed to interpret and carry out user commands. By leveraging their extensive pre-trained knowledge, LLMs can effectively process user requests without the need to introduce new knowledge on the changing environment. The modified ReAct framework further enhances the execution space by providing real-time environmental perception and the outcomes of physical actions. By combining robust and dynamic semantic map representations as graphs with control components and failure explanations, this architecture enhances a robot adaptability, task execution, and seamless collaboration with human users in shared and dynamic environments. Through the integration of continuous feedback loops with the environment the system can dynamically adjusts the plan to accommodate unexpected changes, optimizing the robot ability to perform tasks. Using a dataset of previous experience is possible to provide detailed feedback about the failure. Updating the LLMs context of the next iteration with suggestion on how to overcame the issue.

  • 3 authors
·
Nov 22, 2024 2

HazardArena: Evaluating Semantic Safety in Vision-Language-Action Models

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models inherit rich world knowledge from vision-language backbones and acquire executable skills via action demonstrations. However, existing evaluations largely focus on action execution success, leaving action policies loosely coupled with visual-linguistic semantics. This decoupling exposes a systematic vulnerability whereby correct action execution may induce unsafe outcomes under semantic risk. To expose this vulnerability, we introduce HazardArena, a benchmark designed to evaluate semantic safety in VLAs under controlled yet risk-bearing contexts. HazardArena is constructed from safe/unsafe twin scenarios that share matched objects, layouts, and action requirements, differing only in the semantic context that determines whether an action is unsafe. We find that VLA models trained exclusively on safe scenarios often fail to behave safely when evaluated in their corresponding unsafe counterparts. HazardArena includes over 2,000 assets and 40 risk-sensitive tasks spanning 7 real-world risk categories grounded in established robotic safety standards. To mitigate this vulnerability, we propose a training-free Safety Option Layer that constrains action execution using semantic attributes or a vision-language judge, substantially reducing unsafe behaviors with minimal impact on task performance. We hope that HazardArena highlights the need to rethink how semantic safety is evaluated and enforced in VLAs as they scale toward real-world deployment.

  • 11 authors
·
Apr 13

PerfGuard: A Performance-Aware Agent for Visual Content Generation

The advancement of Large Language Model (LLM)-powered agents has enabled automated task processing through reasoning and tool invocation capabilities. However, existing frameworks often operate under the idealized assumption that tool executions are invariably successful, relying solely on textual descriptions that fail to distinguish precise performance boundaries and cannot adapt to iterative tool updates. This gap introduces uncertainty in planning and execution, particularly in domains like visual content generation (AIGC), where nuanced tool performance significantly impacts outcomes. To address this, we propose PerfGuard, a performance-aware agent framework for visual content generation that systematically models tool performance boundaries and integrates them into task planning and scheduling. Our framework introduces three core mechanisms: (1) Performance-Aware Selection Modeling (PASM), which replaces generic tool descriptions with a multi-dimensional scoring system based on fine-grained performance evaluations; (2) Adaptive Preference Update (APU), which dynamically optimizes tool selection by comparing theoretical rankings with actual execution rankings; and (3) Capability-Aligned Planning Optimization (CAPO), which guides the planner to generate subtasks aligned with performance-aware strategies. Experimental comparisons against state-of-the-art methods demonstrate PerfGuard's advantages in tool selection accuracy, execution reliability, and alignment with user intent, validating its robustness and practical utility for complex AIGC tasks. The project code is available at https://github.com/FelixChan9527/PerfGuard.

  • 8 authors
·
Jan 30

Safety Testing LLM Agents at Scale: From Risk Discovery to Evidence-Grounded Verification

LLM agents increasingly perform autonomous actions through external tools, leading to complex and evolving safety risks. However, existing safety testing targets expert-designed safety violations, and the corresponding outcomes are evaluated by hard-coded rules, making them costly to extend as agents evolve. To this end, we present Vera, an end-to-end automated safety testing framework that instantiates software engineering testing principles for non-deterministic agents through a three-stage, self-reinforcing pipeline. First, a literature-driven exploration continuously discovers and structures emerging risks into taxonomies of safety risks, attack methods, and tool execution environments. Second, combinatorial composition across taxonomy dimensions produces executable safety cases, each specifying a concrete safety goal, a programmatically constructed initial state, and a deterministic verification predicate grounded in observable artifacts. Third, adaptive execution runs heterogeneous agents in isolated sandboxes where a control agent steers multi-turn interaction based on runtime observations, while evidence-grounded verifiers judge outcomes from environment state and tool-call evidence rather than model self-report. We evaluate Vera on four production agent frameworks (OpenClaw, Hermes, Codex, Claude Code), revealing substantial safety weaknesses, with average attack success rates reaching 93.9\% under multi-channel attacks; we also release Vera-Bench, comprising 1600 executable safety cases spanning 124 risk categories across three execution settings. These results indicate that modular, executable testing infrastructure is essential for rigorous and maintainable safety evaluation of rapidly evolving agentic systems at scale. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/Yunhao-Feng/Vera.

antgroup Ant Group
·
Jul 3 2

Steve-Evolving: Open-World Embodied Self-Evolution via Fine-Grained Diagnosis and Dual-Track Knowledge Distillation

Open-world embodied agents must solve long-horizon tasks where the main bottleneck is not single-step planning quality but how interaction experience is organized and evolved. To this end, we present Steve-Evolving, a non-parametric self-evolving framework that tightly couples fine-grained execution diagnosis with dual-track knowledge distillation in a closed loop. The method follows three phases: Experience Anchoring, Experience Distillation, and Knowledge-Driven Closed-Loop Control. In detail, Experience Anchoring solidifies each subgoal attempt into a structured experience tuple with a fixed schema (pre-state, action, diagnosis-result, and post-state) and organizes it in a three-tier experience space with multi-dimensional indices (e.g., condition signatures, spatial hashing, and semantic tags) plus rolling summarization for efficient and auditable recall. To ensure sufficient information density for attribution, the execution layer provides compositional diagnosis signals beyond binary outcomes, including state-difference summaries, enumerated failure causes, continuous indicators, and stagnation/loop detection. Moreover, successful trajectories of Experience Distillation are generalized into reusable skills with explicit preconditions and verification criteria, while failures are distilled into executable guardrails that capture root causes and forbid risky operations at both subgoal and task granularities. Besides, Knowledge-Driven Closed-Loop Control retrieved skills and guardrails are injected into an LLM planner, and diagnosis-triggered local replanning updates the active constraints online, forming a continual evolution process without any model parameter updates. Experiments on the long-horizon suite of Minecraft MCU demonstrate consistent improvements over static-retrieval baselines.

  • 7 authors
·
Mar 13 2

TrialPanorama: Database and Benchmark for Systematic Review and Design of Clinical Trials

Developing artificial intelligence (AI) for vertical domains requires a solid data foundation for both training and evaluation. In this work, we introduce TrialPanorama, a large-scale, structured database comprising 1,657,476 clinical trial records aggregated from 15 global sources. The database captures key aspects of trial design and execution, including trial setups, interventions, conditions, biomarkers, and outcomes, and links them to standard biomedical ontologies such as DrugBank and MedDRA. This structured and ontology-grounded design enables TrialPanorama to serve as a unified, extensible resource for a wide range of clinical trial tasks, including trial planning, design, and summarization. To demonstrate its utility, we derive a suite of benchmark tasks directly from the TrialPanorama database. The benchmark spans eight tasks across two categories: three for systematic review (study search, study screening, and evidence summarization) and five for trial design (arm design, eligibility criteria, endpoint selection, sample size estimation, and trial completion assessment). The experiments using five state-of-the-art large language models (LLMs) show that while general-purpose LLMs exhibit some zero-shot capability, their performance is still inadequate for high-stakes clinical trial workflows. We release TrialPanorama database and the benchmark to facilitate further research on AI for clinical trials.

  • 9 authors
·
May 21, 2025

ARIS: Autonomous Research via Adversarial Multi-Agent Collaboration

This report describes ARIS (Auto-Research-in-sleep), an open-source research harness for autonomous research, including its architecture, assurance mechanisms, and early deployment experience. The performance of agent systems built on LLMs depends on both the model weights and the harness around them, which governs what information to store, retrieve, and present to the model. For long-horizon research workflows, the central failure mode is not a visible breakdown but a plausible unsupported success: a long-running agent can produce claims whose evidential support is incomplete, misreported, or silently inherited from the executor's framing. Therefore, we present ARIS as a research harness that coordinates machine-learning research workflows through cross-model adversarial collaboration as a default configuration: an executor model drives forward progress while a reviewer from a different model family is recommended to critique intermediate artifacts and request revisions. ARIS has three architectural layers. The execution layer provides more than 65 reusable Markdown-defined skills, model integrations via MCP, a persistent research wiki for iterative reuse of prior findings, and deterministic figure generation. The orchestration layer coordinates five end-to-end workflows with adjustable effort settings and configurable routing to reviewer models. The assurance layer includes a three-stage process for checking whether experimental claims are supported by evidence: integrity verification, result-to-claim mapping, and claim auditing that cross-checks manuscript statements against the claim ledger and raw evidence, as well as a five-pass scientific-editing pipeline, mathematical-proof checks, and visual inspection of the rendered PDF. A prototype self-improvement loop records research traces and proposes harness improvements that are adopted only after reviewer approval.

The Blind Spot of Agent Safety: How Benign User Instructions Expose Critical Vulnerabilities in Computer-Use Agents

Computer-use agents (CUAs) can now autonomously complete complex tasks in real digital environments, but when misled, they can also be used to automate harmful actions programmatically. Existing safety evaluations largely target explicit threats such as misuse and prompt injection, but overlook a subtle yet critical setting where user instructions are entirely benign and harm arises from the task context or execution outcome. We introduce OS-BLIND, a benchmark that evaluates CUAs under unintended attack conditions, comprising 300 human-crafted tasks across 12 categories, 8 applications, and 2 threat clusters: environment-embedded threats and agent-initiated harms. Our evaluation on frontier models and agentic frameworks reveals that most CUAs exceed 90% attack success rate (ASR), and even the safety-aligned Claude 4.5 Sonnet reaches 73.0% ASR. More interestingly, this vulnerability becomes even more severe, with ASR rising from 73.0% to 92.7% when Claude 4.5 Sonnet is deployed in multi-agent systems. Our analysis further shows that existing safety defenses provide limited protection when user instructions are benign. Safety alignment primarily activates within the first few steps and rarely re-engages during subsequent execution. In multi-agent systems, decomposed subtasks obscure the harmful intent from the model, causing safety-aligned models to fail. We will release our OS-BLIND to encourage the broader research community to further investigate and address these safety challenges.

TempAct: Advancing Temporal Plausibility in Autoregressive Video Generation via Planner-Executor RL

Autoregressive (AR) video diffusion models enable low-latency streaming generation by synthesizing videos chunk by chunk with cached visual context, but this chunk-wise formulation makes temporal instruction following ambiguous. A single global prompt does not specify which sub-event should be realized in each chunk, while naively switching to step-wise prompts often leads to delayed reactions, blended step semantics, and error propagation across prompt transitions. These failures are difficult to address with supervised fine-tuning or distillation alone: SFT suffers from exposure bias, while rollout-based distillation still optimizes low-level denoising or teacher-distribution matching rather than directly enforcing action ordering and prompt-transition correctness. We address these challenges with TempAct, a planner--executor reinforcement learning framework that jointly optimizes temporal decomposition and step-conditioned execution for temporally plausible AR video generation. TempAct uses an LLM planner to explore span-aware step prompts that are executable by the video model, and trains an AR diffusion executor to follow these prompts under its own generated histories. Its key mechanism is hierarchical group exploration: candidate plans form planning groups, and each plan induces an execution group of multiple continuations from a shared visual context, enabling plan-level credit assignment for long-horizon temporal outcomes and executor-level credit assignment for prompt-switch behavior. We further design hierarchical rewards that combine plan-quality and full-video temporal feedback for the planner with local transition-level step-following rewards, aesthetic regularization, and KL constraints for the executor. Experiments on Self-Forcing and LongLive show that TempAct improves temporal consistency while preserving overall visual quality.

  • 8 authors
·
Jun 25

Defining and Detecting the Defects of the Large Language Model-based Autonomous Agents

AI agents are systems capable of perceiving their environment, autonomously planning and executing tasks. Recent advancements in LLM have introduced a transformative paradigm for AI agents, enabling them to interact with external resources and tools through prompts. In such agents, the workflow integrates developer-written code, which manages framework construction and logic control, with LLM-generated natural language that enhances dynamic decision-making and interaction. However, discrepancies between developer-implemented logic and the dynamically generated content of LLMs in terms of behavior and expected outcomes can lead to defects, such as tool invocation failures and task execution errors. These issues introduce specific risks, leading to various defects in LLM-based AI Agents, such as service interruptions. Despite the importance of these issues, there is a lack of systematic work that focuses on analyzing LLM-based AI Agents to uncover defects in their code. In this paper, we present the first study focused on identifying and detecting defects in LLM Agents. We collected and analyzed 6,854 relevant posts from StackOverflow to define 8 types of agent defects. For each type, we provided detailed descriptions with an example. Then, we designed a static analysis tool, named Agentable, to detect the defects. Agentable leverages Code Property Graphs and LLMs to analyze Agent workflows by efficiently identifying specific code patterns and analyzing natural language descriptions. To evaluate Agentable, we constructed two datasets: AgentSet, consists of 84 real-world Agents, and AgentTest, which contains 78 Agents specifically designed to include various types of defects. Our results show that Agentable achieved an overall accuracy of 88.79% and a recall rate of 91.03%. Furthermore, our analysis reveals the 889 defects of the AgentSet, highlighting the prevalence of these defects.

  • 8 authors
·
Dec 24, 2024

WebCompass: Towards Multimodal Web Coding Evaluation for Code Language Models

Large language models are rapidly evolving into interactive coding agents capable of end-to-end web coding, yet existing benchmarks evaluate only narrow slices of this capability, typically text-conditioned generation with static-correctness metrics, leaving visual fidelity, interaction quality, and codebase-level reasoning largely unmeasured. We introduce WebCompass, a multimodal benchmark that provides unified lifecycle evaluation of web engineering capability. Recognizing that real-world web coding is an iterative cycle of generation, editing, and repair, WebCompass spans three input modalities (text, image, video) and three task types (generation, editing, repair), yielding seven task categories that mirror professional workflows. Through a multi-stage, human-in-the-loop pipeline, we curate instances covering 15 generation domains, 16 editing operation types, and 11 repair defect types, each annotated at Easy/Medium/Hard levels. For evaluation, we adopt a checklist-guided LLM-as-a-Judge protocol for editing and repair, and propose a novel Agent-as-a-Judge paradigm for generation that autonomously executes generated websites in a real browser, explores interactive behaviors via the Model Context Protocol (MCP), and iteratively synthesizes targeted test cases, closely approximating human acceptance testing. We evaluate representative closed-source and open-source models and observe that: (1) closed-source models remain substantially stronger and more balanced; (2) editing and repair exhibit distinct difficulty profiles, with repair preserving interactivity better but remaining execution-challenging; (3) aesthetics is the most persistent bottleneck, especially for open-source models; and (4) framework choice materially affects outcomes, with Vue consistently challenging while React and Vanilla/HTML perform more strongly depending on task type.

  • 19 authors
·
Apr 19 2

OptimAI: Optimization from Natural Language Using LLM-Powered AI Agents

Optimization plays a vital role in scientific research and practical applications. However, formulating a concrete optimization problem described in natural language into a mathematical form and selecting a suitable solver to solve the problem requires substantial ___domain expertise. We introduce OptimAI, a framework for solving Optimization problems described in natural language by leveraging LLM-powered AI agents, and achieve superior performance over current state-of-the-art methods. Our framework is built upon the following key roles: (1) a formulator that translates natural language problem descriptions into precise mathematical formulations; (2) a planner that constructs a high-level solution strategy prior to execution; and (3) a coder and a code critic capable of interacting with the environment and reflecting on outcomes to refine future actions. Ablation studies confirm that all roles are essential; removing the planner or code critic results in 5.8times and 3.1times drops in productivity, respectively. Furthermore, we introduce UCB-based debug scheduling to dynamically switch between alternative plans, yielding an additional 3.3times productivity gain. Our design emphasizes multi-agent collaboration, and our experiments confirm that combining diverse models leads to performance gains. Our approach attains 88.1% accuracy on the NLP4LP dataset and 82.3% on the Optibench dataset, reducing error rates by 58% and 52%, respectively, over prior best results.

  • 4 authors
·
Jan 20

PAAC: Privacy-Aware Agentic Device-Cloud Collaboration

Large language model (LLM) agents face a structural tension: cloud agents provide strong reasoning but expose user data, while on-device agents preserve privacy at the cost of overall capability. Existing device-cloud designs treat this boundary as a compute split rather than a trust boundary suited to agentic workloads, and existing sanitizers force a choice between policy flexibility and the structural fidelity tool calls require. In this work, we develop PAAC, a privacy-aware agentic framework that aligns planner--executor decomposition with the device-cloud boundary so that role specialization itself becomes the privacy mechanism. The cloud agent reasons over typed placeholder tokens that preserve each sensitive value's reasoning role while discarding its content, while the on-device agent identifies sensitive spans and distills each step's execution outcome into compact key findings. Sanitization confines the on-device LLM to proposing which spans to mask, while a deterministic registry performs all substitution and reversal, keeping actions directly executable on device. On three agentic benchmarks under strict privacy settings, PAAC dominates the Pareto frontier of privacy and accuracy, improving average accuracy by 15-36\% and reducing average leakage by 2-6times over state-of-the-art device-cloud baselines, with the largest margins on privacy targets outside fixed entity taxonomies. We find consistent improvements on 17 additional benchmarks spanning 10 domains, including math, science, and finance.

  • 4 authors
·
May 8 1

Model-free Approach to Evaluate a Censored Intermediate Outcome as a Surrogate for Overall Survival

Clinical trials or studies oftentimes require long-term and/or costly follow-up of participants to evaluate a novel treatment/drug/vaccine. There has been increasing interest in the past few decades in using short-term surrogate outcomes as a replacement of the primary outcome i.e., in using the surrogate outcome, which can potentially be observed sooner, to make inference about the treatment effect on the long-term primary outcome. Very few of the available statistical methods to evaluate a surrogate are applicable to settings where both the surrogate and the primary outcome are time-to-event outcomes subject to censoring. Methods that can handle this setting tend to require parametric assumptions or be limited to assessing only the restricted mean survival time. In this paper, we propose a non-parametric approach to evaluate a censored surrogate outcome, such as time to progression, when the primary outcome is also a censored time-to-event outcome, such as time to death, and the treatment effect of interest is the difference in overall survival. Specifically, we define the proportion of the treatment effect on the primary outcome that is explained (PTE) by the censored surrogate outcome in this context, and estimate this proportion by defining and deriving an optimal transformation of the surrogate information. Our approach provides the added advantage of relaxed assumptions to guarantee that the true PTE is within (0,1), along with being model-free. Finite sample performance of our estimators are illustrated via extensive simulation studies and a real data application examining progression-free survival as a surrogate for overall survival for patients with metastatic colorectal cancer.

  • 4 authors
·
Dec 18, 2024

GradeSQL: Outcome Reward Models for Ranking SQL Queries from Large Language Models

Text-to-SQL, the task of translating natural language questions into SQL queries, has significantly advanced with the introduction of Large Language Models (LLMs), broadening database accessibility for a wide range of users. Despite substantial progress in generating valid SQL, current LLMs still struggle with complex queries that require precise alignment between user intent and the database schema. To mitigate this, test-time strategies such as Best-of-N (BoN) and Majority Voting (Maj) are often employed, based on the assumption that LLMs can generate correct answers but may require multiple attempts. However, these methods rely on surface-level heuristics, selecting either the syntactically correct query through execution-based BoN (ex-BoN) or the most frequently generated query with Maj. Recently, Outcome Reward Models (ORMs), which assign utility scores to generated outputs based on semantic correctness, have emerged as a promising approach for better aligning model predictions with user intent. Nevertheless, their application to Text-to-SQL remains largely underexplored. In this work, we evaluate ORMs as an effective heuristic for BoN, compare them with ex-BoN and Maj, and introduce a framework for training ORMs for the Text-to-SQL task. We evaluate our ORMs on the BIRD and SPIDER benchmarks, finetuning various open-source LLMs, including the Qwen2, Granite3, and Llama3 model families. Our results show that ORMs outperform ex-BoN and Maj, achieving execution accuracy gains of +4.33% (BIRD) and +2.10% (Spider) over ex-BoN, and +2.91% (BIRD) and +0.93% (Spider) over Maj. We further demonstrate that finetuning models already aligned with SQL generation, such as OmniSQL, yields superior ORM performance. Additionally, we observe that ORMs achieve competitive results on simple queries and benefit more from an increased number of candidates compared to ex-BoN and Maj.

  • 7 authors
·
Sep 1, 2025

Rethinking Visual-Language-Action Model Scaling: Alignment, Mixture, and Regularization

While Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models show strong promise for generalist robot control, it remains unclear whether -- and under what conditions -- the standard "scale data" recipe translates to robotics, where training data is inherently heterogeneous across embodiments, sensors, and action spaces. We present a systematic, controlled study of VLA scaling that revisits core training choices for pretraining across diverse robots. Using a representative VLA framework that combines a vision-language backbone with flow-matching, we ablate key design decisions under matched conditions and evaluate in extensive simulation and real-robot experiments. To improve the reliability of real-world results, we introduce a Grouped Blind Ensemble protocol that blinds operators to model identity and separates policy execution from outcome judgment, reducing experimenter bias. Our analysis targets three dimensions of VLA scaling. (1) Physical alignment: we show that a unified end-effector (EEF)-relative action representation is critical for robust cross-embodiment transfer. (2) Embodiment mixture: we find that naively pooling heterogeneous robot datasets often induces negative transfer rather than gains, underscoring the fragility of indiscriminate data scaling. (3) Training regularization: we observe that intuitive strategies, such as sensory dropout and multi-stage fine-tuning, do not consistently improve performance at scale. Together, this study challenge some common assumptions about embodied scaling and provide practical guidance for training large-scale VLA policies from diverse robotic data. Project website: https://research.beingbeyond.com/rethink_vla

  • 12 authors
·
Feb 10

The Impact of Medication Non-adherence on Adverse Outcomes: Evidence from Schizophrenia Patients via Survival Analysis

This study quantifies the association between non-adherence to antipsychotic medications and adverse outcomes in individuals with schizophrenia. We frame the problem using survival analysis, focusing on the time to the earliest of several adverse events (early death, involuntary hospitalization, jail booking). We extend standard causal inference methods (T-learner, S-learner, nearest neighbor matching) to utilize various survival models to estimate individual and average treatment effects, where treatment corresponds to medication non-adherence. Analyses are repeated using different amounts of longitudinal information (3, 6, 9, and 12 months). Using data from Allegheny County in western Pennsylvania, we find strong evidence that non-adherence advances adverse outcomes by approximately 1 to 4 months. Ablation studies confirm that county-provided risk scores adjust for key confounders, as their removal amplifies the estimated effects. Subgroup analyses by medication formulation (injectable vs. oral) and medication type consistently show that non-adherence is associated with earlier adverse events. These findings highlight the clinical importance of adherence in delaying psychiatric crises and show that integrating survival analysis with causal inference tools can yield policy-relevant insights. We caution that although we apply causal inference, we only make associative claims and discuss assumptions needed for causal interpretation.

How Eviction Court Governs: A Statistical Analysis of Bargaining, Templates, and Debt in Philadelphia

We analyze downstream courtroom governance in Philadelphia eviction cases using 755,004 Municipal Court landlord--tenant records filed from 1969 through 2022. Post-filing case processing is organized by repeated courtroom relationships, judge and tenant-attorney regimes, reusable agreement templates, and repeated team-property units. Among both-represented, both-attorney-named cases, 58.2% involve a plaintiff-side and tenant-side attorney pair that had appeared against one another in the prior year, and greater prior pair exposure predicts lower default, higher judgment-by-agreement, and higher served-writ rates. Judge-linked cases display statistically distinct baseline outcome, continuance, fee, and award regimes; tenant-attorney identity explains meaningful variance in both case outcomes and agreement terms. Settlement text is highly standardized: reusable templates explain strictness, waiver, lockout-trigger, payment-plan, deadline, and time-is-essence language far more strongly than raw attorney identity. Monetary burden concentrates in repeated plaintiff-attorney-property units. Assignment-cell support and balance audits indicate that judge-linked evidence reflects institutional heterogeneity rather than a clean judge lottery, and judge--triad interactions are not estimable in this docket. Eviction court emerges as a repeated institutional field that organizes bargaining, text, debt, and enforcement after cases enter the courtroom pipeline.

  • 2 authors
·
May 23

Done, But Not Sure: Disentangling World Completion from Self-Termination in Embodied Agents

Standard embodied evaluations do not independently score whether an agent correctly commits to task completion at episode closure, a capacity we call terminal commitment. Behaviorally distinct failures--never completing the task, completing it but failing to stop, and reporting success without sufficient evidence--collapse into the same benchmark failure. We introduce VIGIL, an evaluation framework that makes terminal commitment independently measurable. Under VIGIL's default protocol, agents observe only egocentric RGB, receive no action-success signals, and must end each episode with a semantic report checked deterministically against hidden world state. This yields two separate scores: world-state completion (W) and benchmark success (B), where B additionally requires a correct terminal report. This decoupling makes four outcome categories distinguishable: missed execution, post-attainment drift, unsupported commitment, and verified success. Across 20 models on 1,000 frozen episodes, systems with comparable W differ by up to 19.7 pp in B: one model converts achieved states into correct reports, while another with near-identical execution drifts past the goal without closing. An action-feedback intervention further tests the separation: execution-oriented signals improve W broadly, yet commitment failures persist in models that do not already ground terminal reports in the achieved state. VIGIL provides a protocol that makes terminal commitment independently visible and scorable.

  • 7 authors
·
Jun 1

Execution Is the New Attack Surface: Survivability-Aware Agentic Crypto Trading with OpenClaw-Style Local Executors

OpenClaw-style agent stacks turn language into privileged execution: LLM intents flow through tool interception, policy gates, and a local executor. In parallel, skill marketplaces such as skills.sh make capability acquisition as easy as installing skills and CLIs, creating a growing capability supply chain. Together, these trends shift the dominant safety failure mode from "wrong answers" to execution-induced loss, where untrusted prompts, compromised skills, or narrative manipulation can trigger real trades and irreversible side effects. We propose Survivability-Aware Execution (SAE), an execution-layer survivability standard for OpenClaw-style systems and skill-enabled agents. SAE sits as middleware between a strategy engine (LLM or non-LLM) and the exchange executor. It defines an explicit execution contract (ExecutionRequest, ExecutionContext, ExecutionDecision) and enforces non-bypassable last-mile invariants: projection-based exposure budgets, cooldown and order-rate limits, slippage bounds, staged execution, and tool/venue allowlists. To make delegated execution testable under supply-chain risk, we operationalize the Delegation Gap (DG) via a logged Intended Policy Spec that enables deterministic out-of-scope labeling and reproducible DG metrics. On an offline replay using official Binance USD-M BTCUSDT/ETHUSDT perpetual data (15m; 2025-09-01--2025-12-01, incl. funding), SAE improves survivability: MDD drops from 0.4643 to 0.0319 (Full; 93.1%), |CVaR_0.99| shrinks from 4.025e-3 to ~1.02e-4 (~97.5%), and DG loss proxy falls from 0.647 to 0.019 (~97.0%). AttackSuccess decreases from 1.00 to 0.728 with zero FalseBlock in this run. Block bootstrap, paired Wilcoxon, and two-proportion tests confirm the shifts. SAE reframes agentic trading safety for the OpenClaw+skills era: treat upstream intent and skills as untrusted, and enforce survivability where actions become side effects.

  • 5 authors
·
Mar 9

Free Process Rewards without Process Labels

Different from its counterpart outcome reward models (ORMs), which evaluate the entire responses, a process reward model (PRM) scores a reasoning trajectory step by step, providing denser and more fine grained rewards. However, training a PRM requires labels annotated at every intermediate step, presenting significant challenges for both manual and automatic data collection. This paper aims to address this challenge. Both theoretically and empirically, we show that an implicit PRM can be obtained at no additional cost, by simply training an ORM on the cheaper response-level labels. The only assumption is to parameterize the outcome reward as the log-likelihood ratios of the policy and reference models, which can be optimized regardless of the specific choice of loss objectives. In experiments, we instantiate our implicit PRMs with various objectives and evaluate their performance on MATH. We show that our implicit PRM outperforms a strong MCTS-based baseline \'a la Math-Shepherd using less than 1/38 of the training data. Its performance can be further improved with majority voting. We further find that scaling up instructions and responses benefits our implicit PRM, and the latter brings a larger gain. Particularly, we find that our implicit PRM, when instantiated with the cross-entropy (CE) loss, is more data-efficient and can keep improving generation models even when trained with only one response per instruction, the setup that suffers from extreme data scarcity and imbalance. Further, instructions should be relevant to downstream tasks while the diversity of responses does not bring gains. Surprisingly, training on extra Math-Shepherd step labels brings no further improvements to our implicit PRM trained on only outcome data. We hope that our work will encourage a rethinking of PRM training approaches and contribute to making training PRMs more accessible.

  • 9 authors
·
Dec 2, 2024 2

Towards Execution-Grounded Automated AI Research

Automated AI research holds great potential to accelerate scientific discovery. However, current LLMs often generate plausible-looking but ineffective ideas. Execution grounding may help, but it is unclear whether automated execution is feasible and whether LLMs can learn from the execution feedback. To investigate these, we first build an automated executor to implement ideas and launch large-scale parallel GPU experiments to verify their effectiveness. We then convert two realistic research problems - LLM pre-training and post-training - into execution environments and demonstrate that our automated executor can implement a large fraction of the ideas sampled from frontier LLMs. We analyze two methods to learn from the execution feedback: evolutionary search and reinforcement learning. Execution-guided evolutionary search is sample-efficient: it finds a method that significantly outperforms the GRPO baseline (69.4% vs 48.0%) on post-training, and finds a pre-training recipe that outperforms the nanoGPT baseline (19.7 minutes vs 35.9 minutes) on pre-training, all within just ten search epochs. Frontier LLMs often generate meaningful algorithmic ideas during search, but they tend to saturate early and only occasionally exhibit scaling trends. Reinforcement learning from execution reward, on the other hand, suffers from mode collapse. It successfully improves the average reward of the ideator model but not the upper-bound, due to models converging on simple ideas. We thoroughly analyze the executed ideas and training dynamics to facilitate future efforts towards execution-grounded automated AI research.

  • 6 authors
·
Jan 20

Legal RAG Bench: an end-to-end benchmark for legal RAG

We introduce Legal RAG Bench, a benchmark and evaluation methodology for assessing the end-to-end performance of legal RAG systems. As a benchmark, Legal RAG Bench consists of 4,876 passages from the Victorian Criminal Charge Book alongside 100 complex, hand-crafted questions demanding expert knowledge of criminal law and procedure. Both long-form answers and supporting passages are provided. As an evaluation methodology, Legal RAG Bench leverages a full factorial design and novel hierarchical error decomposition framework, enabling apples-to-apples comparisons of the contributions of retrieval and reasoning models in RAG. We evaluate three state-of-the-art embedding models (Isaacus' Kanon 2 Embedder, Google's Gemini Embedding 001, and OpenAI's Text Embedding 3 Large) and two frontier LLMs (Gemini 3.1 Pro and GPT-5.2), finding that information retrieval is the primary driver of legal RAG performance, with LLMs exerting a more moderate effect on correctness and groundedness. Kanon 2 Embedder, in particular, had the largest positive impact on performance, improving average correctness by 17.5 points, groundedness by 4.5 points, and retrieval accuracy by 34 points. We observe that many errors attributed to hallucinations in legal RAG systems are in fact triggered by retrieval failures, concluding that retrieval sets the ceiling for the performance of many modern legal RAG systems. We document why and how we built Legal RAG Bench alongside the results of our evaluations. We also openly release our code and data to assist with reproduction of our findings.

isaacus Isaacus
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Mar 2 2

HumanEval Pro and MBPP Pro: Evaluating Large Language Models on Self-invoking Code Generation

We introduce self-invoking code generation, a new task designed to evaluate the progressive reasoning and problem-solving capabilities of LLMs. In this task, models are presented with a base problem and a related, more complex problem. They must solve the base problem and then utilize its solution to address the more complex one. This work features three key contributions. First, we propose a general recipe for generating more challenging versions of existing benchmarks, resulting in three new benchmarks: HumanEval Pro, MBPP Pro, and BigCodeBench-Lite Pro, specifically designed to assess LLMs on self-invoking code generation. Second, from the analysis of experimental results over twenty LLMs on our benchmarks, we have two important observations: (i) Most LLMs excel in traditional code generation benchmarks like HumanEval and MBPP, but their performance declines on self-invoking tasks. For example, o1-mini achieves 96.2% pass@1 on HumanEval but only 76.2% on HumanEval Pro. (ii) On self-invoking code generation task, the instruction-tuned models demonstrate only marginal improvements compared to the base models. Third, we disclose the types of failure modes that exist in our evaluation results. All these results underscore the need for further advancements in self-invoking code generation tasks and provide a new direction for future research on enhancing LLMs' code reasoning capabilities.

  • 4 authors
·
Dec 30, 2024 3

InT: Self-Proposed Interventions Enable Credit Assignment in LLM Reasoning

Outcome-reward reinforcement learning (RL) has proven effective at improving the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). However, standard RL assigns credit only at the level of the final answer, penalizing entire reasoning traces when the outcome is incorrect and uniformly reinforcing all steps when it is correct. As a result, correct intermediate steps may be discouraged in failed traces, while spurious steps may be reinforced in successful ones. We refer to this failure mode as the problem of credit assignment. While a natural remedy is to train a process reward model, accurately optimizing such models to identify corrective reasoning steps remains challenging. We introduce Intervention Training (InT), a training paradigm in which the model performs fine-grained credit assignment on its own reasoning traces by proposing short, targeted corrections that steer trajectories toward higher reward. Using reference solutions commonly available in mathematical reasoning datasets and exploiting the fact that verifying a model-generated solution is easier than generating a correct one from scratch, the model identifies the first error in its reasoning and proposes a single-step intervention to redirect the trajectory toward the correct solution. We then apply supervised fine-tuning (SFT) to the on-policy rollout up to the point of error concatenated with the intervention, localizing error to the specific step that caused failure. We show that the resulting model serves as a far better initialization for RL training. After running InT and subsequent fine-tuning with RL, we improve accuracy by nearly 14% over a 4B-parameter base model on IMO-AnswerBench, outperforming larger open-source models such as gpt-oss-20b.

The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution (TADPOLE) Challenge: Results after 1 Year Follow-up

We present the findings of "The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution" (TADPOLE) Challenge, which compared the performance of 92 algorithms from 33 international teams at predicting the future trajectory of 219 individuals at risk of Alzheimer's disease. Challenge participants were required to make a prediction, for each month of a 5-year future time period, of three key outcomes: clinical diagnosis, Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale Cognitive Subdomain (ADAS-Cog13), and total volume of the ventricles. The methods used by challenge participants included multivariate linear regression, machine learning methods such as support vector machines and deep neural networks, as well as disease progression models. No single submission was best at predicting all three outcomes. For clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume prediction, the best algorithms strongly outperform simple baselines in predictive ability. However, for ADAS-Cog13 no single submitted prediction method was significantly better than random guesswork. Two ensemble methods based on taking the mean and median over all predictions, obtained top scores on almost all tasks. Better than average performance at diagnosis prediction was generally associated with the additional inclusion of features from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). On the other hand, better performance at ventricle volume prediction was associated with inclusion of summary statistics, such as the slope or maxima/minima of biomarkers. TADPOLE's unique results suggest that current prediction algorithms provide sufficient accuracy to exploit biomarkers related to clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume, for cohort refinement in clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease. However, results call into question the usage of cognitive test scores for patient selection and as a primary endpoint in clinical trials.

  • 96 authors
·
Feb 9, 2020

Cost-effectiveness analysis for therapy sequence in advanced cancer: A microsimulation approach with application to metastatic prostate cancer

Purpose. Patients with advanced cancer may undergo multiple lines of treatment, switching therapies as their disease progresses. Motivated by a study of metastatic prostate cancer, we develop a microsimulation framework to study therapy sequence. Methods. We propose a discrete-time state transition model to study two lines of anti-cancer therapy. Based on digitized published progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) curves, we infer event types (progression or death), and estimate transition probabilities using cumulative incidence functions with competing risks. Our model incorporates within-patient dependence over time, such that response to first-line therapy informs subsequent event probabilities. Parameters governing the degree of within-patient dependence can be used to calibrate the model-based results to those of a target trial. We demonstrate these methods in a study of two therapy sequences for metastatic prostate cancer, where Docetaxel (DCT) and Abiraterone Acetate (AA) are both appropriate for use in either first or second line treatment. We assess costs, Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) and Incremental Cost Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) for two treatment strategies: DCT then AA vs AA then DCT. Results. Using digitized survival curves from relevant clinical trials, we identified 8.6-13.9% of PFS times that should be categorized as deaths, allowing for estimation of cumulative incidence functions. Models assuming within-patient independence overestimated OS time, corrected with our calibration approach. Correction resulted in meaningful changes in the difference in QALYs between treatment strategies (0.07 vs 0.15) and the ICER (-\76,836/QALY vs -21,030/QALY). Conclusions. Microsimulation models can be successfully used to study cost-effectiveness of therapy sequences, taking care to account correctly for within-patient dependence.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 10, 2022

TRIAGE: Role-Typed Credit Assignment for Agentic Reinforcement Learning

Agentic reinforcement learning requires assigning credit to environment-facing actions such as searches, clicks, edits, navigation commands, and object interactions. Standard GRPO uses the final verifier outcome as a uniform advantage over all action tokens. This outcome signal is useful but structurally incomplete: it punishes useful exploration in failed rollouts and reinforces redundant or regressive actions in successful rollouts. We propose TRIAGE, a role-typed credit assignment framework that adds a semantic role axis to outcome credit. A structured judge classifies each segment as decisive progress, useful exploration, no-progress infrastructure, or regression, and a fixed role-conditioned rule maps these labels to bounded segment-level process rewards. This keeps verifier outcomes as the source of optimization direction while correcting the two main blind spots of outcome-only credit. We further show that role-conditioned credit is the optimal segment-level correction expressible from role labels alone -- a projection of the per-segment advantage residual onto the role variable -- so that the fixed role constants reduce advantage estimation error whenever the judge is reliable, and we connect this to lower-variance policy gradients. Across ALFWorld, Search-QA, and WebShop, TRIAGE improves success rates over GRPO for two policy models and outperforms both a scalar judge-derived process reward and an outcome-supervised shared-backbone value baseline. Ablations show that the gain comes from role typing rather than merely adding dense rewards: reliable detection of regression inside successful trajectories is the dominant contributor, while exploration credit provides a consistent secondary gain; on completed ALFWorld and WebShop rollouts, TRIAGE also reduces environment-facing turns by an additional 10.4% and 14.8% relative to GRPO.

LinkedIn LinkedIn
·
Jun 29 2

Safe, or Simply Incapable? Rethinking Safety Evaluation for Phone-Use Agents

When a phone-use agent avoids harm, does that show safety, or simply inability to act? Existing evaluations often cannot tell. A harmful outcome may be avoided because the agent recognized the risk and chose the safe action, or because it failed to understand the screen or execute any relevant action at all. These cases have different causes and call for different fixes, yet current benchmarks often merge them under task success, refusal, or final harmful outcome. We address this problem with PhoneSafety, a benchmark of 700 safety-critical moments drawn from real phone interactions across more than 130 apps. Each instance isolates the next decision at a risky moment and asks a simple question: does the model take the safe action, take the unsafe action, or fail to do anything useful? We evaluate eight representative phone-use agents under this framework. Our results reveal two main patterns. First, stronger general phone-use ability does not reliably imply safer choices at risky moments. Models that perform better on ordinary app tasks are not always the ones that behave more safely when the next action matters. Second, failures to do anything useful behave like a capability signal rather than a safety signal: they are concentrated in more visually and operationally demanding settings and remain stable when the evaluation protocol changes. Across models, failures split into two recurring patterns: unsafe choices in settings where the model can act but chooses wrongly, and inability to act in more visually and operationally demanding screens. Overall, a harmless outcome is not enough to count as evidence of safety. Evaluating phone-use agents requires separating unsafe judgment from inability to act.

  • 21 authors
·
May 7 2

The Aloe Family Recipe for Open and Specialized Healthcare LLMs

Purpose: With advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) for healthcare, the need arises for competitive open-source models to protect the public interest. This work contributes to the field of open medical LLMs by optimizing key stages of data preprocessing and training, while showing how to improve model safety (through DPO) and efficacy (through RAG). The evaluation methodology used, which includes four different types of tests, defines a new standard for the field. The resultant models, shown to be competitive with the best private alternatives, are released with a permisive license. Methods: Building on top of strong base models like Llama 3.1 and Qwen 2.5, Aloe Beta uses a custom dataset to enhance public data with synthetic Chain of Thought examples. The models undergo alignment with Direct Preference Optimization, emphasizing ethical and policy-aligned performance in the presence of jailbreaking attacks. Evaluation includes close-ended, open-ended, safety and human assessments, to maximize the reliability of results. Results: Recommendations are made across the entire pipeline, backed by the solid performance of the Aloe Family. These models deliver competitive performance across healthcare benchmarks and medical fields, and are often preferred by healthcare professionals. On bias and toxicity, the Aloe Beta models significantly improve safety, showing resilience to unseen jailbreaking attacks. For a responsible release, a detailed risk assessment specific to healthcare is attached to the Aloe Family models. Conclusion: The Aloe Beta models, and the recipe that leads to them, are a significant contribution to the open-source medical LLM field, offering top-of-the-line performance while maintaining high ethical requirements. This work sets a new standard for developing and reporting aligned LLMs in healthcare.

  • 13 authors
·
May 7, 2025 2

A Benchmark for Evaluating Outcome-Driven Constraint Violations in Autonomous AI Agents

As autonomous AI agents are increasingly deployed in high-stakes environments, ensuring their safety and alignment with human values has become a paramount concern. Current safety benchmarks primarily evaluate whether agents refuse explicitly harmful instructions or whether they can maintain procedural compliance in complex tasks. However, there is a lack of benchmarks designed to capture emergent forms of outcome-driven constraint violations, which arise when agents pursue goal optimization under strong performance incentives while deprioritizing ethical, legal, or safety constraints over multiple steps in realistic production settings. To address this gap, we introduce a new benchmark comprising 40 distinct scenarios. Each scenario presents a task that requires multi-step actions, and the agent's performance is tied to a specific Key Performance Indicator (KPI). Each scenario features Mandated (instruction-commanded) and Incentivized (KPI-pressure-driven) variations to distinguish between obedience and emergent misalignment. Across 12 state-of-the-art large language models, we observe outcome-driven constraint violations ranging from 1.3% to 71.4%, with 9 of the 12 evaluated models exhibiting misalignment rates between 30% and 50%. Strikingly, we find that superior reasoning capability does not inherently ensure safety; for instance, Gemini-3-Pro-Preview, one of the most capable models evaluated, exhibits the highest violation rate at 71.4%, frequently escalating to severe misconduct to satisfy KPIs. Furthermore, we observe significant "deliberative misalignment", where the models that power the agents recognize their actions as unethical during separate evaluation. These results emphasize the critical need for more realistic agentic-safety training before deployment to mitigate their risks in the real world.

  • 6 authors
·
Dec 23, 2025

GPT Takes the Bar Exam

Nearly all jurisdictions in the United States require a professional license exam, commonly referred to as "the Bar Exam," as a precondition for law practice. To even sit for the exam, most jurisdictions require that an applicant completes at least seven years of post-secondary education, including three years at an accredited law school. In addition, most test-takers also undergo weeks to months of further, exam-specific preparation. Despite this significant investment of time and capital, approximately one in five test-takers still score under the rate required to pass the exam on their first try. In the face of a complex task that requires such depth of knowledge, what, then, should we expect of the state of the art in "AI?" In this research, we document our experimental evaluation of the performance of OpenAI's `text-davinci-003` model, often-referred to as GPT-3.5, on the multistate multiple choice (MBE) section of the exam. While we find no benefit in fine-tuning over GPT-3.5's zero-shot performance at the scale of our training data, we do find that hyperparameter optimization and prompt engineering positively impacted GPT-3.5's zero-shot performance. For best prompt and parameters, GPT-3.5 achieves a headline correct rate of 50.3% on a complete NCBE MBE practice exam, significantly in excess of the 25% baseline guessing rate, and performs at a passing rate for both Evidence and Torts. GPT-3.5's ranking of responses is also highly-correlated with correctness; its top two and top three choices are correct 71% and 88% of the time, respectively, indicating very strong non-entailment performance. While our ability to interpret these results is limited by nascent scientific understanding of LLMs and the proprietary nature of GPT, we believe that these results strongly suggest that an LLM will pass the MBE component of the Bar Exam in the near future.

  • 2 authors
·
Dec 29, 2022

Evaluation of GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 for supporting real-world information needs in healthcare delivery

Despite growing interest in using large language models (LLMs) in healthcare, current explorations do not assess the real-world utility and safety of LLMs in clinical settings. Our objective was to determine whether two LLMs can serve information needs submitted by physicians as questions to an informatics consultation service in a safe and concordant manner. Sixty six questions from an informatics consult service were submitted to GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 via simple prompts. 12 physicians assessed the LLM responses' possibility of patient harm and concordance with existing reports from an informatics consultation service. Physician assessments were summarized based on majority vote. For no questions did a majority of physicians deem either LLM response as harmful. For GPT-3.5, responses to 8 questions were concordant with the informatics consult report, 20 discordant, and 9 were unable to be assessed. There were 29 responses with no majority on "Agree", "Disagree", and "Unable to assess". For GPT-4, responses to 13 questions were concordant, 15 discordant, and 3 were unable to be assessed. There were 35 responses with no majority. Responses from both LLMs were largely devoid of overt harm, but less than 20% of the responses agreed with an answer from an informatics consultation service, responses contained hallucinated references, and physicians were divided on what constitutes harm. These results suggest that while general purpose LLMs are able to provide safe and credible responses, they often do not meet the specific information need of a given question. A definitive evaluation of the usefulness of LLMs in healthcare settings will likely require additional research on prompt engineering, calibration, and custom-tailoring of general purpose models.

  • 18 authors
·
Apr 26, 2023

Integrative Experiments Identify How Punishment Impacts Welfare in Public Goods Games

Punishment as a mechanism for promoting cooperation has been studied extensively for more than two decades, but its effectiveness remains a matter of dispute. Here, we examine how punishment's impact varies across cooperative settings through a large-scale integrative experiment. We vary 14 parameters that characterize public goods games, sampling 360 experimental conditions and collecting 147,618 decisions from 7,100 participants. Our results reveal striking heterogeneity in punishment effectiveness: while punishment consistently increases contributions, its impact on payoffs (i.e., efficiency) ranges from dramatically enhancing welfare (up to 43% improvement) to severely undermining it (up to 44% reduction) depending on the cooperative context. To characterize these patterns, we developed models that outperformed human forecasters (laypeople and ___domain experts) in predicting punishment outcomes in new experiments. Communication emerged as the most predictive feature, followed by contribution framing (opt-out vs. opt-in), contribution type (variable vs. all-or-nothing), game length (number of rounds), peer outcome visibility (whether participants can see others' earnings), and the availability of a reward mechanism. Interestingly, however, most of these features interact to influence punishment effectiveness rather than operating independently. For example, the extent to which longer games increase the effectiveness of punishment depends on whether groups can communicate. Together, our results refocus the debate over punishment from whether or not it "works" to the specific conditions under which it does and does not work. More broadly, our study demonstrates how integrative experiments can be combined with machine learning to uncover generalizable patterns, potentially involving interactions between multiple features, and help generate novel explanations in complex social phenomena.

  • 4 authors
·
Aug 22, 2025

To Run or Not to Run: Analyzing the Cost-Effectiveness of Code Execution in LLM-Based Program Repair

LLM-based agents for program repair are increasingly built on a "generate-run-revise" paradigm, iteratively executing tests to evaluate and refine patches. This execution-based approach has become standard practice in state-of-the-art systems. However, executions can be time-consuming and expensive, yet their impact on these agents remains underexplored. In this paper, we conduct a two-stage empirical study over execution behavior in LLM-based program repair. To characterize execution behavior at scale, we first analyze 7,745 agent traces from SWE-bench leaderboard submissions. Second, we evaluate 3,000 end-to-end repair attempts across 200 SWE-bench instances and three agents (Claude Code, Codex, and the open-source OpenCode) under four execution paradigms, which allows for a fine-grained comparison of performance and cost. Our analysis reveals three key observations: (1) Code execution is used across all agents and models analyzed, with an average of 8.8 test runs per task. Execution behavior varies substantially across agents and models, with frequency ranging from 2 to 19 per task, and late-stage executions consistently achieve higher success rates than early-stage ones. (2) Execution restrictions have little effect on repair success: on commercial agents with SOTA models the resolve-rate gap between Prohibited and Unrestricted is only 1.25 percentage points and not statistically significant, while Prohibited saves substantial token and wall-clock cost. (3) Execution benefit is concentrated rather than uniform. These patterns suggest that current agents apply execution indiscriminately, paying its cost on instances where it provides little benefit. Execution, therefore, should be treated as a resource with an explicit cost-benefit tradeoff, not a default capability.

WebArbiter: A Principle-Guided Reasoning Process Reward Model for Web Agents

Web agents hold great potential for automating complex computer tasks, yet their interactions involve long-horizon, sequential decision-making with irreversible actions. In such settings, outcome-based supervision is sparse and delayed, often rewarding incorrect trajectories and failing to support inference-time scaling. This motivates the use of Process Reward Models (WebPRMs) for web navigation, but existing approaches remain limited: scalar WebPRMs collapse progress into coarse, weakly grounded signals, while checklist-based WebPRMs rely on brittle template matching that fails under layout or semantic changes and often mislabels superficially correct actions as successful, providing little insight or interpretability. To address these challenges, we introduce WebArbiter, a reasoning-first, principle-inducing WebPRM that formulates reward modeling as text generation, producing structured justifications that conclude with a preference verdict and identify the action most conducive to task completion under the current context. Training follows a two-stage pipeline: reasoning distillation equips the model with coherent principle-guided reasoning, and reinforcement learning corrects teacher biases by directly aligning verdicts with correctness, enabling stronger generalization. To support systematic evaluation, we release WebPRMBench, a comprehensive benchmark spanning four diverse web environments with rich tasks and high-quality preference annotations. On WebPRMBench, WebArbiter-7B outperforms the strongest baseline, GPT-5, by 9.1 points. In reward-guided trajectory search on WebArena-Lite, it surpasses the best prior WebPRM by up to 7.2 points, underscoring its robustness and practical value in real-world complex web tasks.

When Models Can't Follow: Testing Instruction Adherence Across 256 LLMs

Despite widespread deployment of Large Language Models, systematic evaluation of instruction-following capabilities remains challenging. While comprehensive benchmarks exist, focused assessments that quickly diagnose specific instruction adherence patterns are valuable. As newer models may be trained on existing benchmarks, novel evaluation approaches are needed to assess genuine capabilities rather than memorized performance. This paper presents a streamlined evaluation framework using twenty carefully designed prompts to assess LLM instruction-following across diverse task categories. We demonstrate this framework through a large-scale empirical study conducted on October 14, 2025, testing 256 verified working models from 331 available via OpenRouter. To ensure methodological rigor and prevent selection bias, we first verified each model's basic functionality before inclusion. Unlike large-scale benchmarks requiring extensive computational resources, our approach offers a practical diagnostic tool researchers and practitioners can readily apply. Our methodology builds upon verifiable instructions while introducing a compact test suite balancing comprehensiveness with efficiency. Each prompt targets distinct aspects of instruction following, including format compliance, content constraints, logical sequencing, and multi-step task execution. We evaluate models from major providers (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, Mistral) and emerging implementations (Qwen, DeepSeek, community models), providing comparative performance analysis. Our findings reveal consistent failure modes and identify specific instruction types posing particular challenges. This work contributes both a practical evaluation tool and one of the most comprehensive empirical analyses of instruction-following capabilities across the contemporary LLM landscape.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 18, 2025

Improve Machine Learning carbon footprint using Nvidia GPU and Mixed Precision training for classification models -- Part I

This is the 1st part of the dissertation for my master degree and compares the power consumption using the default floating point (32bit) and Nvidia mixed precision (16bit and 32bit) while training a classification ML model. A custom PC with specific hardware was built to perform the experiments, and different ML hyper-parameters, such as batch size, neurons, and epochs, were chosen to build Deep Neural Networks (DNN). Additionally, various software was used during the experiments to collect the power consumption data in Watts from the Graphics Processing Unit (GPU), Central Processing Unit (CPU), Random Access Memory (RAM) and manually from a wattmeter connected to the wall. A benchmarking test with default hyper parameter values for the DNN was used as a reference, while the experiments used a combination of different settings. The results were recorded in Excel, and descriptive statistics were chosen to calculate the mean between the groups and compare them using graphs and tables. The outcome was positive when using mixed precision combined with specific hyper-parameters. Compared to the benchmarking, the optimisation for the classification reduced the power consumption between 7 and 11 Watts. Similarly, the carbon footprint is reduced because the calculation uses the same power consumption data. Still, a consideration is required when configuring hyper-parameters because it can negatively affect hardware performance. However, this research required inferential statistics, specifically ANOVA and T-test, to compare the relationship between the means. Furthermore, tests indicated no statistical significance of the relationship between the benchmarking and experiments. However, a more extensive implementation with a cluster of GPUs can increase the sample size significantly, as it is an essential factor and can change the outcome of the statistical analysis.

  • 1 authors
·
Sep 12, 2024

Process-Supervised Reinforcement Learning for Code Generation

Existing reinforcement learning strategies based on outcome supervision have proven effective in enhancing the performance of large language models(LLMs) for code generation. While reinforcement learning based on process supervision has shown great promise in handling multi-step reasoning tasks, its effectiveness in code generation remains largely underexplored and underjustified. The primary obstacle stems from the resource-intensive nature of constructing high-quality process-supervised data, which demands substantial human expertise and computational resources. In response to this challenge, we propose a "statement mutation/refactoring-compile and execution verification" strategy: mutating and refactoring code line-by-line through a teacher model, and utilizing compiler execution results to automatically label each line, resulting in line-by-line process-supervised data, which is pivotal for training a process-supervised reward model. The trained reward model is then integrated into the PRLCoder framework, followed by experimental validation on several benchmarks. Experimental results demonstrate that process-supervised reinforcement learning significantly surpasses methods relying solely on outcome supervision. Notably, in tackling complex code generation tasks, process-supervised reinforcement learning shows a clear advantage, ensuring both the integrity of the code generation process and the correctness of the generation results.

  • 4 authors
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Feb 3, 2025

Expert Evaluation of Clinical AI Tools on Real Point-of-Care Clinical Queries

Physicians now pose millions of clinical questions to AI tools each week, yet these tools are evaluated largely on hypothetical or exam-style questions, not those actually asked in practice. We report a blinded evaluation built on 620 Real-world Point-Of-Care Queries (Real-POCQi) submitted to the OpenEvidence (OE) platform by physicians spanning 30 specialties, as well as 187 questions from HealthBench. 149 practicing physicians across 36 states made head-to-head comparisons between answers from three frontier general-purpose models (Claude Opus 4.8, Gemini 3.1 Pro, and GPT-5.5) and a specialized clinical tool (OE), with graders matched to each question's specialty. When comparing answers along five dimensions relevant to clinical decision support -- accuracy, clinical utility, source quality, verifiability, & completeness -- physicians scored the specialized tool highest on all axes; in the primary analysis on Real-POCQi, win differences (margins between win and loss rates) ranged from 25 to 39 percentage points (p<0.001). Results remained consistent in sensitivity analyses stratifying by citation display, answer length, OE-user status, and Real-POCQi versus HealthBench. In parallel, LLM judges were found to systematically differ from expert judges, though both generally agreed on the best model. These findings underscore two conclusions: (i) AI tool evaluations should reflect real-world query distributions and use expert judges that mirror the specialization defining modern medicine and (ii) the consistent advantage of the specialized tool over general-purpose models does not necessarily mean that the latter cannot serve similar purposes, but that targeted engineering and customization can yield meaningful gains in performance for its users. We release Real-POCQi as a public benchmark, as well as the prespecified statistical analysis for reproducing results of this study.

  • 8 authors
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Jun 26

Deep Learning Segmentation of Ascites on Abdominal CT Scans for Automatic Volume Quantification

Purpose: To evaluate the performance of an automated deep learning method in detecting ascites and subsequently quantifying its volume in patients with liver cirrhosis and ovarian cancer. Materials and Methods: This retrospective study included contrast-enhanced and non-contrast abdominal-pelvic CT scans of patients with cirrhotic ascites and patients with ovarian cancer from two institutions, National Institutes of Health (NIH) and University of Wisconsin (UofW). The model, trained on The Cancer Genome Atlas Ovarian Cancer dataset (mean age, 60 years +/- 11 [s.d.]; 143 female), was tested on two internal (NIH-LC and NIH-OV) and one external dataset (UofW-LC). Its performance was measured by the Dice coefficient, standard deviations, and 95% confidence intervals, focusing on ascites volume in the peritoneal cavity. Results: On NIH-LC (25 patients; mean age, 59 years +/- 14 [s.d.]; 14 male) and NIH-OV (166 patients; mean age, 65 years +/- 9 [s.d.]; all female), the model achieved Dice scores of 0.855 +/- 0.061 (CI: 0.831-0.878) and 0.826 +/- 0.153 (CI: 0.764-0.887), with median volume estimation errors of 19.6% (IQR: 13.2-29.0) and 5.3% (IQR: 2.4-9.7) respectively. On UofW-LC (124 patients; mean age, 46 years +/- 12 [s.d.]; 73 female), the model had a Dice score of 0.830 +/- 0.107 (CI: 0.798-0.863) and median volume estimation error of 9.7% (IQR: 4.5-15.1). The model showed strong agreement with expert assessments, with r^2 values of 0.79, 0.98, and 0.97 across the test sets. Conclusion: The proposed deep learning method performed well in segmenting and quantifying the volume of ascites in concordance with expert radiologist assessments.

  • 7 authors
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Jun 22, 2024

Aligning Language Models with Observational Data: Opportunities and Risks from a Causal Perspective

Large language models are being widely used across industries to generate content that contributes directly to key performance metrics, such as conversion rates. Pretrained models, however, often fall short when it comes to aligning with human preferences or optimizing for business objectives. As a result, fine-tuning with good-quality labeled data is essential to guide models to generate content that achieves better results. Controlled experiments, like A/B tests, can provide such data, but they are often expensive and come with significant engineering and logistical challenges. Meanwhile, companies have access to a vast amount of historical (observational) data that remains underutilized. In this work, we study the challenges and opportunities of fine-tuning LLMs using observational data. We show that while observational outcomes can provide valuable supervision, directly fine-tuning models on such data can lead them to learn spurious correlations. We present empirical evidence of this issue using various real-world datasets and propose DeconfoundLM, a method that explicitly removes the effect of known confounders from reward signals. Using simulation experiments, we demonstrate that DeconfoundLM improves the recovery of causal relationships and mitigates failure modes found in fine-tuning methods that ignore or naively incorporate confounding variables. Our findings highlight that while observational data presents risks, with the right causal corrections, it can be a powerful source of signal for LLM alignment. Please refer to the project page for code and related resources.

  • 1 authors
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May 30, 2025

GPT-4 passes most of the 297 written Polish Board Certification Examinations

Introduction: Recently, the effectiveness of Large Language Models (LLMs) has increased rapidly, allowing them to be used in a great number of applications. However, the risks posed by the generation of false information through LLMs significantly limit their applications in sensitive areas such as healthcare, highlighting the necessity for rigorous validations to determine their utility and reliability. To date, no study has extensively compared the performance of LLMs on Polish medical examinations across a broad spectrum of specialties on a very large dataset. Objectives: This study evaluated the performance of three Generative Pretrained Transformer (GPT) models on the Polish Board Certification Exam (Pa\'nstwowy Egzamin Specjalizacyjny, PES) dataset, which consists of 297 tests. Methods: We developed a software program to download and process PES exams and tested the performance of GPT models using OpenAI Application Programming Interface. Results: Our findings reveal that GPT-3.5 did not pass any of the analyzed exams. In contrast, the GPT-4 models demonstrated the capability to pass the majority of the exams evaluated, with the most recent model, gpt-4-0125, successfully passing 222 (75%) of them. The performance of the GPT models varied significantly, displaying excellence in exams related to certain specialties while completely failing others. Conclusions: The significant progress and impressive performance of LLM models hold great promise for the increased application of AI in the field of medicine in Poland. For instance, this advancement could lead to the development of AI-based medical assistants for healthcare professionals, enhancing the efficiency and accuracy of medical services.

  • 3 authors
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Apr 29, 2024

Failure as a Process: An Anatomy of CLI Coding Agent Trajectories

Large language model (LLM) coding agents are increasingly deployed to autonomously perform software engineering tasks in terminal-based environments, making their reliability a growing concern. Existing empirical studies investigate why coding agents fail, yet they largely treat failure as a final outcome rather than a temporal process, providing limited insight into how failures emerge, evolve, and become unrecoverable. We present the first large-scale empirical study of CLI coding-agent failure trajectories, introducing a process-oriented framework that analyzes failure through its onset, evolution, and recovery across execution trajectories. We first collect 3,843 execution trajectories generated by seven frontier models across three coding-agent scaffolds (OpenHands, MiniSWE, and Terminus2) on Terminal-Bench, then carefully filter them to obtain 1,794 complete and valid trajectories for manual annotation (over 63,000 execution steps), from which we derive 14 findings spanning failure occurrence, root causes, recovery, and cross-system consistency. Our findings show that coding-agent failures are predominantly driven by epistemic errors, typically begin within the first few execution steps, and often remain hidden until recovery is no longer possible, suggesting that improving coding-agent reliability requires earlier validation and intervention rather than relying solely on final-outcome evaluation.

  • 7 authors
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Jul 9

Enhancing clinical decision support with physiological waveforms -- a multimodal benchmark in emergency care

Background: AI-driven prediction algorithms have the potential to enhance emergency medicine by enabling rapid and accurate decision-making regarding patient status and potential deterioration. However, the integration of multimodal data, including raw waveform signals, remains underexplored in clinical decision support. Methods: We present a dataset and benchmarking protocol designed to advance multimodal decision support in emergency care. Our models utilize demographics, biometrics, vital signs, laboratory values, and electrocardiogram (ECG) waveforms as inputs to predict both discharge diagnoses and patient deterioration. Results: The diagnostic model achieves area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) scores above 0.8 for 609 out of 1,428 conditions, covering both cardiac (e.g., myocardial infarction) and non-cardiac (e.g., renal disease, diabetes) diagnoses. The deterioration model attains AUROC scores above 0.8 for 14 out of 15 targets, accurately predicting critical events such as cardiac arrest, mechanical ventilation, ICU admission, and mortality. Conclusions: Our study highlights the positive impact of incorporating raw waveform data into decision support models, improving predictive performance. By introducing a unique, publicly available dataset and baseline models, we provide a foundation for measurable progress in AI-driven decision support for emergency care.

  • 3 authors
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Apr 29, 2025

A Flexible Parametric Modelling Framework for Survival Analysis

We introduce a general, flexible, parametric survival modelling framework which encompasses key shapes of hazard function (constant, increasing, decreasing, up-then-down, down-then-up), various common survival distributions (log-logistic, Burr type XII, Weibull, Gompertz), and includes defective distributions (i.e., cure models). This generality is achieved using four basic distributional parameters: two scale-type parameters and two shape parameters. Generalising to covariate dependence, the scale-type regression components correspond to accelerated failure time (AFT) and proportional hazards (PH) models. Therefore, this general formulation unifies the most popular survival models which allows us to consider the practical value of possible modelling choices for survival data. Furthermore, in line with our proposed flexible baseline distribution, we advocate the use of multi-parameter regression in which more than one distributional parameter depends on covariates - rather than the usual convention of having a single covariate-dependent (scale) parameter. While many choices are available, we suggest introducing covariates through just one or other of the two scale parameters, which covers AFT and PH models, in combination with a `power' shape parameter, which allows for more complex non-AFT/non-PH effects, while the other shape parameter remains covariate-independent, and handles automatic selection of the baseline distribution. We explore inferential issues in simulations, both with and without a covariate, with particular focus on evidence concerning the need, or otherwise, to include both AFT and PH parameters. We illustrate the efficacy of our modelling framework by investigating differences between treatment groups using data from a lung cancer study and a melanoma study. Censoring is accommodated throughout.

  • 3 authors
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Jan 10, 2019

Synthetic Patients: Simulating Difficult Conversations with Multimodal Generative AI for Medical Education

Problem: Effective patient-centered communication is a core competency for physicians. However, both seasoned providers and medical trainees report decreased confidence in leading conversations on sensitive topics such as goals of care or end-of-life discussions. The significant administrative burden and the resources required to provide dedicated training in leading difficult conversations has been a long-standing problem in medical education. Approach: In this work, we present a novel educational tool designed to facilitate interactive, real-time simulations of difficult conversations in a video-based format through the use of multimodal generative artificial intelligence (AI). Leveraging recent advances in language modeling, computer vision, and generative audio, this tool creates realistic, interactive scenarios with avatars, or "synthetic patients." These synthetic patients interact with users throughout various stages of medical care using a custom-built video chat application, offering learners the chance to practice conversations with patients from diverse belief systems, personalities, and ethnic backgrounds. Outcomes: While the development of this platform demanded substantial upfront investment in labor, it offers a highly-realistic simulation experience with minimal financial investment. For medical trainees, this educational tool can be implemented within programs to simulate patient-provider conversations and can be incorporated into existing palliative care curriculum to provide a scalable, high-fidelity simulation environment for mastering difficult conversations. Next Steps: Future developments will explore enhancing the authenticity of these encounters by working with patients to incorporate their histories and personalities, as well as employing the use of AI-generated evaluations to offer immediate, constructive feedback to learners post-simulation.

  • 2 authors
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May 30, 2024

Outcome-based Exploration for LLM Reasoning

Reinforcement learning (RL) has emerged as a powerful method for improving the reasoning abilities of large language models (LLMs). Outcome-based RL, which rewards policies solely for the correctness of the final answer, yields substantial accuracy gains but also induces a systematic loss in generation diversity. This collapse undermines real-world performance, where diversity is critical for test-time scaling. We analyze this phenomenon by viewing RL post-training as a sampling process and show that, strikingly, RL can reduce effective diversity even on the training set relative to the base model. Our study highlights two central findings: (i) a transfer of diversity degradation, where reduced diversity on solved problems propagates to unsolved ones, and (ii) the tractability of the outcome space, since reasoning tasks admit only a limited set of distinct answers. Motivated by these insights, we propose outcome-based exploration, which assigns exploration bonuses according to final outcomes. We introduce two complementary algorithms: historical exploration, which encourages rarely observed answers via UCB-style bonuses, and batch exploration, which penalizes within-batch repetition to promote test-time diversity. Experiments on standard competition math with Llama and Qwen models demonstrate that both methods improve accuracy while mitigating diversity collapse. On the theoretical side, we formalize the benefit of outcome-based exploration through a new model of outcome-based bandits. Together, these contributions chart a practical path toward RL methods that enhance reasoning without sacrificing the diversity essential for scalable deployment.

  • 3 authors
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Sep 7, 2025

TRAJEVAL: Decomposing Code Agent Trajectories for Fine-Grained Diagnosis

Code agents can autonomously resolve GitHub issues, yet when they fail, current evaluation provides no visibility into where or why. Metrics such as Pass@1 collapse an entire execution into a single binary outcome, making it difficult to identify where and why the agent went wrong. To address this limitation, we introduce TRAJEVAL, a diagnostic framework that decomposes agent trajectories into three interpretable stages: search (file localization), read (function comprehension), and edit (modification targeting). For each stage, we compute precision and recall by comparing against reference patches. Analyzing 16,758 trajectories across three agent architectures and seven models, we find universal inefficiencies (all agents examine approximately 22x more functions than necessary) yet distinct failure modes: GPT-5 locates relevant code but targets edits incorrectly, while Qwen-32B fails at file discovery entirely. We validate that these diagnostics are predictive, achieving model-level Pass@1 prediction within 0.87-2.1% MAE, and actionable: real-time feedback based on trajectory signals improves two state-of-the-art models by 2.2-4.6 percentage points while reducing costs by 20-31%. These results demonstrate that our framework not only provides a more fine-grained analysis of agent behavior, but also translates diagnostic signals into tangible performance gains. More broadly, TRAJEVAL transforms agent evaluation beyond outcome-based benchmarking toward mechanism-driven diagnosis of agent success and failure.

  • 9 authors
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Mar 24

An Analysis of Causal Effect Estimation using Outcome Invariant Data Augmentation

The technique of data augmentation (DA) is often used in machine learning for regularization purposes to better generalize under i.i.d. settings. In this work, we present a unifying framework with topics in causal inference to make a case for the use of DA beyond just the i.i.d. setting, but for generalization across interventions as well. Specifically, we argue that when the outcome generating mechanism is invariant to our choice of DA, then such augmentations can effectively be thought of as interventions on the treatment generating mechanism itself. This can potentially help to reduce bias in causal effect estimation arising from hidden confounders. In the presence of such unobserved confounding we typically make use of instrumental variables (IVs) -- sources of treatment randomization that are conditionally independent of the outcome. However, IVs may not be as readily available as DA for many applications, which is the main motivation behind this work. By appropriately regularizing IV based estimators, we introduce the concept of IV-like (IVL) regression for mitigating confounding bias and improving predictive performance across interventions even when certain IV properties are relaxed. Finally, we cast parameterized DA as an IVL regression problem and show that when used in composition can simulate a worst-case application of such DA, further improving performance on causal estimation and generalization tasks beyond what simple DA may offer. This is shown both theoretically for the population case and via simulation experiments for the finite sample case using a simple linear example. We also present real data experiments to support our case.

  • 5 authors
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Oct 28, 2025 1

Learning Interactions Between Continuous Treatments and Covariates with a Semiparametric Model

Estimating the impact of continuous treatment variables (e.g., dosage amount) on binary outcomes presents significant challenges in modeling and estimation because many existing approaches make strong assumptions that do not hold for certain continuous treatment variables. For instance, traditional logistic regression makes strong linearity assumptions that do not hold for continuous treatment variables like time of initiation. In this work, we propose a semiparametric regression framework that decomposes effects into two interpretable components: a prognostic score that captures baseline outcome risk based on a combination of clinical, genetic, and sociodemographic features, and a treatment-interaction score that flexibly models the optimal treatment level via a nonparametric link function. By connecting these two parametric scores with Nadaraya-Watson regression, our approach is both interpretable and flexible. The potential of our approach is demonstrated through numerical simulations that show empirical estimation convergence. We conclude by applying our approach to a real-world case study using the International Warfarin Pharmacogenomics Consortium (IWPC) dataset to show our approach's clinical utility by deriving personalized warfarin dosing recommendations that integrate both genetic and clinical data, providing insights towards enhancing patient safety and therapeutic efficacy in anticoagulation therapy.

  • 3 authors
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May 6, 2025